Tag Archives: detroit lions

The status of the Detroit Lions after the draft

Readers, this is the part where my brother takes over my blog to talk about football again. -N

Last year, I wrote two posts comparing the 2010 Detroit Lions to the 2009 and 2008 squads on a statistical basis. One was a mid-season post, and the other was a season review post. The short story is that the 2010 Lions were a much better team than the 2008 and 2009 teams. That point was probably obvious given the difference in records. The more interesting discovery made in those posts was that the 2010 Lions beat their opponents in terms of third-down conversions, passing yards, sacks and turnovers. Further, they were just Detroit Lions Helmetbarely edged out by their opponents in terms of first downs, total yards, rushing yards and completion percentage.

So, what did the Lions do in the 2011 draft to maintain their victories and reverse their losses? In the first round, they drafted Nick Fairley. Fairley was a senior-year dynamo defensive tackle at Auburn, racking up 4.29 tackles per game, 1.71 tackles for loss per game and .86 sacks per game. Last year the Lions took defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who is now the pro bowl rookie of the year. In his senior season, Suh had 6.09 tackles per game, 1.46 tackles for loss per game and .86 sacks per game. These guys are now going to be playing next to each other. I think it is safe to say that the Fairley pick ensured that the Detroit Lions will sack a few quarterbacks in 2011 and will cause a couple of turnovers. NFC North quarterbacks are already having nightmares about playing the Silver Storm.

With their first pick in the second round, the Lions took Titus Demetrius “T.D.” Young. Young is a speedy receiver out of Boise State. His senior year, he racked up 93.5(!) yards receiving per game by catching 5.5 balls per game. That led to him scoring an average of 4.6 points per game. Plugging this guy in with the greatest receiver in the NFL and Nate Burleson just made the team’s passing game a difficult day for opposing secondary squads. My prediction is that the Young pick puts the Lions on top of their opponents in terms of first downs and completion percentage and keeps their hold on passing yards.

By trading some later round picks, the Lions acquired a second second-round pick. They used it to take Mikel Leshoure, a north/south running back from Illinois. In Leshoure’s senior season, he carried the ball 282 times for an average of 6.05 yards per carry and 131.23 yards per game. He never fumbled in college. Not once. And the Lions just passed their opponents in terms of rushing yards per game and total yards per game and ensured their hold on turnovers per game.

At the end of last season, I opined that the 2011 Detroit Lions were going to be playing in the 2011 post-season. Today, I’ll guarantee it.

Assuming there is a 2011 post-season.

You may also like “Can the Detroit Lions Restore Their Roar,” in which author Robert Cobb agrees with Perry Mason’s assessment.

Perry Mason’s final analysis of the Lions’ season

Last month I wrote a post comparing the 2010 Detroit Lions to the 2009 and 2008 squads on a statistical basis. Because the 2010 season had not come to a close, that post prorated the then-current 2010 statistics over the full season to provide an apples-to-apples comparison. Now the 2010 season is over, so a “real numbers” apples-to-apples comparison can be made. This is that comparison.

Category 2008 2009 2010
First downs 234 281 304
First downs allowed 350 332 320
First down ratio -116 -51 -16
Third down conversions 29% 49% 40%
Third down conversions allowed 46% 44% 39%
Third down ratio -17% 5% 1%
Total yards 4292 4784 5423
Total yards allowed 6470 6274 5497
Total yards ratio -2718 -1490 -74
Rushing yards 1332 1616 1613
Rushing yards allowed 2754 2025 1999
Rushing yards ratio -1422 -409 -386
Passing yards 2960 3168 3810
Passing yards allowed 3716 4249 3498
Passing yards ratio -756 -1081 312
Completion percentage 55% 54% 61%
Completion percentage against 68% 68% 64%
Completion percentage ratio -13% -14% -3%
Sacks 30 26 44
Sacks allowed 52 43 27
Sacks ratio -22 -23 17
Turnover ratio -9 -18 4

Detroit LionsOf the eight above statistical categories — which I would say are the key stats to winning football games — the 2008 Lions were better than their opponents at none. And they won zero games. The 2009 Lions were better than their opponents at exactly one. And they won two games.

But 2010 was different.

In 2010, the Lions outgunned their opponents in terms of third-down conversions, passing yards, sacks and turnovers. Further, they were just barely edged out by their opponents in terms of first downs (-1 per game), total yards (-4.6 per game), rushing yards (-24.15 per game) and completion percentage (-3% overall). And they won six* games. That is an infinite number more than they won in 2008, and 300 percent more than they won in 2009.

I’ll say it now, and I’ll stand by it next year: The 2011 Detroit Lions are going to be playing in the 2011 post-season.

*I think we all know they actually won seven games, but we will call it six for the Carebears fans who might read this.

The Detroit Lions are improving, and Perry Mason can prove it

Detroit LionsIn 2008, I graduated from law school, moved 640 miles from home, passed a bar exam and began my legal career. You know what I remember most vividly about 2008? The Detroit Lions attained a perfect 0-16 record. On September 25, 2008, as the Lions continued to skid, something happened that gave the Honolulu Blue masses hope: William Clay Ford announced that he had relieved Matt Millen of his duties as President and CEO, “effective immediately.” We all knew without a doubt that our troubles were over.

One MM was replaced with another. With Martin Mayhew calling the shots instead of Matt Millen, Rod Marinelli was fired as head coach and replaced with Jim Schwartz, a defensive coaching dynamo from Tennessee. In the 2009 draft, the Lions took franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford, a solid tight end in Brandon Pettigrew, a stud safety in Louis Delmas, an outside line backer with some serious upside in DeAndre Levy, and a wide receiver to take some attention away from Calvin Johnson in Derrick Williams. And that was just the first three rounds. Oh yes, we were on the move. And then the season happened, and we went 2-14, winning two games in less than convincing fashion.

But Ford stayed the course. Mayhew and Schwartz stayed on, and Lions fans looked forward to yet another off season. Wow, what an offseason it was. In the draft the Lions took the freak defensive tackle that is Ndamukong Suh, whose name literally means House of Spears. They followed up that pick with speedster running back Jahvid Best and high-upside corner back (now safety) Amari Spievey. The Lions then brought in free-agent wide receiver Nate Burleson, defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch and defensive tackle Corey Williams, all excellent additions. With a defensive front four now including Vanden Bosch, Corey Williams, Ndamukong Suh(nami) and speed rusher Cliff Avril, opposing quarterbacks were already shivering at the thought of playing the second coming of the Silver Rush.

Fast forward to today, December 13, 2010. The Detroit Lions are 3-10 (or 4-9 if you count the Week 1 debacle in which the guys in stripes decided to give the Chicago Carebears a win). At that pace, we finish the season 4-12. Not exactly the improvement we were hoping for. Naturally, rumblings that Coach Schwartz should be fired and that these are the Same Old Lions are starting. Given that some of my favorite childhood memories are listening to my uncles complain about this team, I’m more than preconditioned to jump on the negativity bandwagon. But I decided first to look at the stats to really see whether any improvement had occurred. I was amazed at what I saw:
The Lions are improving
In summary, from 2008 to 2010, the Lions have drastically improved their First Down Ratio, 3rd Down Conversion Ratio, Total Yards, Rushing Yards, and Passing Yards Ratios, Completion Percentage Ratio, Sacks Ratio and Turnover Ratio. In other words, the 2010 Lions handily beat the 2008 Lions in every single stat category necessary to winning. The Detroit Lions are improving, and I can prove it.